So since I got back to penn, I've been doing lots of thinking about what i want to do with my life in the face of the financial crisis. Banks are still recruiting for internships on campus, but its kind of funny seeing the merrils and the citis come and recruit, while they are smeared on the front pages of the FT and WSJ.
Recently, I've gotten really involved in the Huntsman Investment Fund. I'm one of the PMs and head of the research committee. As part of my job i'm trying to figure out what is the best direction to head in these markets:
some thoughts:
Sovering wealth funds à now more focused on inward investments
By the way, why isn’t education tax deductible in the
US did well equity b/c of currency strength
Investing, you have ot stick w/ a discipline
Shipping – Baltic Dry Index b/c of China/India trade down 95%
Port infrastrure?
Underlying PE relative based on Trend EPS
Closed End funds trading at a 11% discount
Economic Recovery
Stimulus will kickstart, but will it work in the long term?
3 Rs
- Re-Capitalization
- Re-Nationalization
- Re-Regulation
3Ds
- Deleveraging
- Dis-inflation
- disgust
M&A
Cancelled deals
SGS/Intertekà largest inspection agency
Steel
- 70% of US Debt is owed by Emerging Markets:
Misconceptions regarding
- Risk aversion
- Illiquidity/market clou
- EM as a commodity play erception
- Proxy for global trade
- Mis management of currency reserve
Recovery?
3 pretensions for recovery
- asset prices low enough, so that famous, large investors start buying: Buffet, Jim Rogers, Jeremy Grantham
- Inter bank lending thaw
- Credit markets CDS???
- Liquidity rising savings rate
- Asset value reflection
- Confidence restored
De leveraging à re investment
Perceived Value à Real Value
Financial Market Recovery à Economic Recovery
à Fundamental Analysis
Panic Decisions à Broader position
Defensive posture
Long term risk aversion
- capital flight
- swf back inward
- fixed vs. equite
Consumer alter lifestyle
To big to fail
0 comments:
Post a Comment